Press and Friends and Press who are Friends:
This morning update is short, typing this quickly in the parking lot of Paynes Prairie State Park, where I saw a bear on my run. It's easy to forget just how beautiful this state is that we get to call home
The high point:
Friday's returns show the continued trend towards the Democrats. After Friday's voting, Democrats have now closed the GOP advantage in voters to 9.1 percent. This is down from 13 on Monday and compares to 18.5 on the same day of the campaign in 2010, meaning the gap today is less than 1/2 of what it was at this point in 2010. Palm Beach County data is not in this figure, so the 9.1 number might yet drop.
Couple of other notes:
Early and Absentee ballot voting in Broward continues to be very strong. Democrats have now doubled their 2010 total at this point in the election, and have an advantage of 28 points over the GOP, as compared to 15 at this point in the election. And to stress how turnout is going, the current Democratic advantage over the GOP of just over 29,000 votes is nearly equal to the number of Democrats (30,000) who had voted at this point in 2014.
In fact, compared to this point in the election in 2010, the Dems have improved their margin compared to the GOP by more than 10 points in 16 counties, and have improved their standing in 55 counties out of 67 total.
Moreover, the 12 counties where Republicans have improved over 2010 equal less than 1.4% of all votes cast to date statewide.
I also wanted to highlight the three counties around Orlando: Orange, Seminole and Osceola County. Two of these counties, Orange and Osceola, were in the top 7 worst turnout counties in the state in 2010.
However, in this election, sporadic voters are turning out there. And those sporadic voters are looking more like the new voting coalition in Central Florida. Not only are 46% of the non-traditional off year voters non-white, but Democrats are leading among these voters by more than 18 points.
I am going to attempt to provide you with an update on the Saturday early voting tomorrow, but no promises.
One last thing, the Republican memos on this race are exclusively comparing 2014 with 2012. What is somewhat comical about this point is for most of the last two years, they have made the point, rightly, that Democrats can never compare a Presidential turnout year to an Gubernatorial one, which is entirely accurate. This is also why comparing pre-election models in off year to a Presidential year is also simply comparing apples to oranges - though part of me appreciates the fond memories of that win.
The reason why they do it is simple: Rick Scott won by 61,000 votes in the single most Republican year in the state's history. To win at that margin required a GOP advantage of 5 points among registered voters, which in itself required a 12 point advantage among people who voted before Election Day. Given that the margin is already at 9.1, and dropping, it is no wonder they don't want to compare this election to the last statewide they won.
In the meantime, enjoy the weekend and enjoy the fact that the Gators will not lose this weekend. Guess this means they are bowl eligible another week.
And Florida GOP, well played on the bear. That must have taken some work