Join the Email List


Want to run for Congress? Move to Central Florida.

With the census about to start in earnest, I wanted to take a look at the likely winners and losers from the next reapportionment and redistricting.  I am not even going to try to predict how that 2012 process will benefit the parties or individual members.  Certainly as anyone who has lived through one redistricting session (I did in 2002) can attest, there is very little you can predict once pen goes to paper.

However, I do believe that by tracking the 2000 census data through the most recent census population projections from last year, there are some interesting nuggets about how the map will evolve.

The number one takeaway, assuming that Florida gains only one new Congressional seat:  the new Congressional seat will likely fall somewhere between Orlando and the eastern part of the Tampa media market.  And in the unlikely scenario that Florida gets two, the Tampa and Orlando media markets will likely each be the beneficiaries of one.

But that's only the beginning.

Since 2000, Florida has experienced subtle demographic shifts.  For example, the 2000 census showed that just under 54% of all Floridians lived in one of the state's seven 'urban' counties, counties with a population of more than 750,000 (Broward, Dade, Duval, Hillsborough, Palm Beach, Pinellas, Orange).  Today, that number is 51.7%.  The shift, not surprisingly, is almost exclusively into the midsize (typically suburban/ ) counties. 

Except, unlike the rest of the country, it hasn't been due to urban flight.  For example, the three counties who have dropped the most in terms of their share of statewide population:  Dade, Broward and Pinellas all share in common one thing:  they are at or nearly at maximum density due to geographic constraints.

On the flip side, the counties that are the fastest gaining in terms of their share of statewide population:  Lee (though the failed housing market there is now leading to some retreat in numbers), Orange, Osceola, St. Lucie and Lake all share a similar trait---lots of room to grow.

So what does all this mean?

In general, shockingly little all in all.  Most parts of the state will see very little change in terms of their total representation, though that doesn't mean that everything will be the same.

First, the state house map will show the most obvious shifts.  If counties were apportioned seats strictly based on population (which we know they are not), Dade, Broward and Pinellas would likely each lose an entire seat in the house. 

On the flipside, Orlando/Osceola would gain another (and it would likely be majority Hispanic), and SW Florida would receive another, likely based in Lee County.   The lost Pinellas seat would be absorbed within the media market, but would end up far further north and east, potentially even benefiting the Villages.

In total, the Miami media market would be down two, and the Orlando media market would be up two.  Southwest Florida gains one, stealing some from the eastern side of the state.

In the State Senate, SE Florida will likely watch the power centers of a couple of their districts shift north and west, as Orlando and SW Florida grab bigger chunks of the map. 

That being said, within media markets and even counties, there are subtle shifts that will likely lead to some interesting cartography. But in the interest of space, I'll take those on at a later date.

Agree?  Disagree?  As always, let me know.


Five Takeaways from the Week

Poliitcs had a busy week in Florida and dominates this week's five takeaways.

5.   Baker out of the Agriculture Race-  State Senator Carey Baker,  universally considered one of the good guys in Tallahassee, dropped out of the race for Agriculture Commissioner.  Baker, who many considered to be an underdog in his GOP primary against Congressman Adam Putnam, was nonetheless waging a very credible campaign.  His departure essentially sets up a match between Putnam and former Tallahassee Mayor Scott Maddox, who this week got a fair amount of attention for aggressively taking on near beach oil drilling.

4.  More from the GOP Soap Opera- This week brought more coverage of the ongoing drama at the Republican Party of Florida, as new disclosures showed that the party continued to run up their American Express card bill, despite Jim Greer's very public decision to cut up his own card.  Next week, the GOP will select a new Chair, ending what Marco Rubio this week called the "dark period" at the state party.  While many of my Democratic friends are having a good time with the drip, drip coming from the GOP, I have no doubt the party will recover. 

3.  Subpeonas in the Sansom Case include Rubio.  This week, the House committee investigating Ray Sansom made the decision to issue subpeonas.  The biggest news:  Marco Rubio will be asked to testify.  Up to this point in his Senate race, Rubio has had a pretty free run, but issues like the Sansom case will certainly lead to more public scrutiny.  Surely, there is no one more than Rubio that hopes this thing gets settled---because even if he had nothing to do with the case, the last thing his 'outsider' campaign needs is media attention that shows him to be the quintessential insider. 

2.   Redistricting Showdown in the Legislature.  This week, Ellen Frieden, Chair of the Fair Districts came to Tallahassee to testify before a joint House/Senate redistricting Committee to discuss the constitutional initiative that she is taking to the ballot next fall.  Like the initiative or not, Frieden more than held her own under four hours of intense scrutiny.  Certainly if history predicts anything, expect legislative leaders to continue use this soapbox to try to turn public opinion against the initiatives.

1.   Lincoln Diaz Balart to retire from Congress.  Catching many political observers off guard, Congressman Lincoln Diaz Balartannounced his decision to not seek re-election, setting off the dominos in Dade County.  The first move, Lincoln's brother Mario, the Congressman from the 25th district in Florida, announced his decision to run for his brother's much 'safer' seat, creating a opening in his seat.    State Representative David Rivera is assumed to be getting in the open Congressional seat, and there is considerable buzz that both State Senator Alex Diaz de la Portilla and Alex Villalobos are considering getting in.  On the Democratic side, many are encouraging US Department of Energy official Joe Garcia to get in the race. 


I haven't forgotten my blog! 

In the last few days, I have taken on some significant new work duties, taking over the 2010 political shop at the Florida Justice Association.   

It has taken me a few days to adjust to the organization (and probably will several more).   But more posts are coming soon, I promise. 

Topics to come include what regions will be the winners/losers in redistricting and more on the Mass Senate race, notably, why candidates matter.  I might even profile the changes in a certain Florida House seat that one GOP member kindly noted to me that I failed to mention in my recent post on state house change! 

Thanks for your patience.  As always, if you have thoughts, comments, and/or snarky comments about my blog, or you have suggestions for posts, please drop me a line at steven DOT schale AT gmail DOT com. 



Five Takeaways from the Week

5.  Gutierrez drops out of race against Grayson:  Congressman Alan Grayson had a good week when Armando Gutierrez dropped out of the race for the Congressional District 8 seat.  While Gutierrez wasn't the top tier recruit that the GOP had hoped to get in the district, I argue he was the Republican's best shot against Grayson, due to his fundraising base and his potential ability to draw a few votes out of Grayson's large and growing Hispanic base.  The next best challenger, State Rep Kurt Kelly from Ocala is not well positioned geographically.  

4. GOP wants to roll back class size amendment.    This week, GOP legislators announced plans to go back to the voters with a down sized class size amendment.  Given the make-up of the legislature, odds are pretty good it gets to the ballot.  My question: is that really what the GOP wants to do?  Getting to 60% is no easy challenge here, and all you do is give education-minded Democrats another reason to show up to vote. 

3. RPOFgate, part 32821:  the Delmar Johnson Chapter.    As the Jim Greer era comes crashing to an end, the latest revelation is that the party Exec Director earned more than $400,000 last year (for what it is worth, more than 4x what Obama State Directors earned in 2008), plus apparently was a fan of the party credit card.   In talking to my GOP friends (yes, I have GOP friends), the reaction has been visceral.  The bad news for Democrats, I have no doubt that either John Thrasher or Sharon Day will run a much tighter shop.  The good news for Democrats:  Scott Arceneaux is easily one of the best party ED's in my party's history, and who given his GOP counterpart's news, clearly deserves a raise. 

2. Obama reshapes NASA mission.   President Obama's budget proposal will significantly reshape the mission for NASA, by in the short term moving away from manned missions and using NASA resources in research.  The net result is scrapping the troubled Constellation program and a quick return to the moon in favor of spending the next decade building the technology for longer human space missions.  Given NASA's economic impact, many in Central Florida are concerned about what this means.  From my perspective, the change in course provides a real opportunity to build a high tech/space corridor in Central Florida.  For those who fear this is the end of the space industry, fear not, according to Buzz Aldrin.

1. Crist unveils his budget.    Governor Crist unveiled his 2010-2011 budget, which was greeted in the legislature with the same level of enthusiasm as if Sarah Palin showed up to address the Democratic National Committee.  That being said, it is the opening salvo in Crist's attempt to focus on governing and save his political career.  How he performs this session, and more importantly, how voters perceive his leadership, will likely seal his political fate one way or the other. 


Near misses:   Press starts to take on Rubio, House panel refuses to drop Sansom case, Sink vs. the Governator, and most importantly, NASCAR is back on track. 


Dante Revisited: The Nine Circles of Florida Road Warrior Hell

It has been a busy couple months in the old Toyota (so old, it is pre-recall era), which makes it an opportune time to have a little fun with the blog. 

So here goes, Dante's Inferno revisited:  what the nine circles of politico hell would look like if hell was Florida's highways, destinations and airports.  As I've visited all 67 counties in the last couple years, most many times, I feel like I am pretty well suited to make these calls. 

Sometime in the near future, I'll hit the various spheres of Florida's road warrior Paradisio.  Hint:  Tampa Airport.

I hope my fellow political road warriors will weigh in with their thoughts.

1.   Political Conferences at Disney and other "Destination" resorts.   Growing up most of my life in Florida, I am a fan of Disney.  Nikole and I have been many times and love the place.  However, going there for a business is almost unfair.  You know you want to have fun and get in the Disney spirit, but you have to put on a suit and tie and play the other role, while everyone else around you is essentially care-free.   And if you aren't at Disney, Murphy's Law dictates that your political conference will probably be some place like the Fountainbleau in Miami, where you get to try to hold meetings while watching the surf.

2. Tallahassee.  I live here and it is a great place.   However, getting to and from this place is often just a tiny bit easier than getting to and from Bismarck, ND (trust me, I know this one).  As they say, Tallahassee is just one stop from the world, except that one stop is Atlanta airport (a place Dante definitely dreamed about in writing Inferno), which is the wrong way if you are headed anywhere south.  Sure, you can fly direct from Ft. Myers to Germany, which is probably the same connection you will make if you try to get from Ft. Myers to Tallahassee. Oh, and for the pleasure of one-stoping to the world, you will pay about 4 times what it costs if you lived in say, Tampa. 

3. Following a school bus on U.S. 1 in the Keys (nominated by Tom Eldon).  Going to the Keys for work is a perk of living in Florida, except getting to the Keys tends to take some work, and sometimes that work means following a school bus down Overseas Highway.  As Tom Eldon of Schroth, Eldon and Associates suggests, if this happens to you, pull off the road and go fishing for two hours, and by then, the chances are good that you won't catch the bus before you get to Key West.  Why isn't this further down the list, you might ask?  Well, because its the Keys and how bad could it be?

4. Orlando International Airport.  In the Pantheon of big airports, MCO is a pretty good one.  Well laid out, clean and easy to get around (just avoid the $5 a gallon gas station nearby).  Except when you go through security and you are in a hurry.  One day, TSA will find a special method of clearing all those massive tourist shopping bags, but until then, pull up a chair because you will be there for a while.

5. I-10.  I've probably driven I-10 at least 400-500 times in my political career.  As an interstate, it is uniquely special.  On a road where driving 70mph could be considered cruel and unusual punishment, expect to find about 75 state troopers every mile.   How many times have you been on I-10, say passing Madison going towards Jacksonville, then feel like you drive for 2-3 days, only to realize you are just getting to Live Oak?  You know who has never driven I-10?  Cell phone companies.

6. US 19 from St. Pete to Weekee Wachee.  I like Pinellas County a whole lot.  I am a big fan of St. Petersburg and Pinellas County is without a doubt home to the best grouper sandwich in Florida (Woody's).  I've spent so much time there in the last four years that they might make me start paying taxes.  In fact, it is one of the few places in Florida that I could see living in one day---as long as I could avoid US 19.  US 19 is essentially the spine of Pinellas County, connecting coastal Pasco and Hernando counties with St. Petersburg along a highway that includes 1750 traffic lights, 37 Hooters and more chain restaurants per mile than any place else in Florida, except maybe US 192. 

7. I-4.  Tampa to Orlando.  I-4 is Florida's Box of Chocolates, you never know what you are going to get.  Sometimes you leave downtown Orlando at 10:00 AM and find yourself in downtown Tampa a few minutes after 11.  Sometimes you leave downtown Orlando at 10:00 AM and find yourself in downtown Tampa a few minutes after 11---a week or two later.   On behalf of everyone who has spent most of an afternoon in a rain storm on I-4, thank you President Obama for high speed rail. 

8. I-95 from Ft. Lauderdale to Miami.  For most of the length of I-95, the driving is pleasurable, as long as your idea of pleasurable is bump drafting at Daytona.  But once you get to Ft. Lauderdale, it turns into a real adventure.  As one nominator said about the stretch, "it is seven lanes of hell, complete with thousands of drivers who apparently have made peace with God."  Hint:  pay the toll to use the express lanes in Dade County.  At least you will have orange cones to protect you from the melee.

9. The Miami International Airport.   Flying into Miami isn't all that bad, assuming you can figure out how to get to the expressway from the sand lot behind the abandoned industrial complex--also known as rental car row.  Leaving Miami on a regional jet?  Good luck.  First you have to navigate the parking lot known as Dolphin Expressway just to get there, then find your rental car return location, ride the bus to the airport, stand in line for TSA, walk halfway around the world to your gate, get on a bus to ride well out into the tarmac, get off bus and hope it isn't raining, then board your plane. 

Near misses:  Love/Hate relationship with Panera Bread, Continental's prop planes, Atlanta International Airport, the Sawgrass Mills Mall. 



What's Crist to do (besides dropping out and endorsing Kendrick Meek)?

If I had a dollar for every question I've gotten about the Crist campaign, just in the last 96 hours, I wouldn't be driving a seven year old car with 130,000 miles.   I can only imagine how many calls my GOP friends are getting. 

The most recent frenzy is driven by three recent polls that show Rubio ahead anywhere from a few to a dozen points, once again turning both Tallahassee and Washington on its head.   I even spent a good solid hour today beating down the rumor from my friends in the nation's Capitol that Crist was about to join the Democratic Party.  Apparently, false speculation that Vice President Joe Biden and Governor Crist had dinner last week fueled that rumor. 

Adam Smith and Beth Reinhard today wrote a solid article about Crist's current fortunes.  It is a must read and in it, the Governor talks about what he plans to do about it:  focus on governing.  Quite honestly, that isn't enough.  I'd take it one step further. 

So here it is Governor, my advice.  Just two things: 

1.  Suspend your campaign. 

Crist's own numbers show he has more than $6 million on hand, more than enough to run a strong primary.  What Crist needs to do now is change people's perception, and he can only do that by being a strong leader.  People like Crist personally, but he's never ditched the view that he's just another ambitious pol. In these economic times, that perception is certainly dogging him. So, Governor, be bold and call a press confernce to announce you are stepping off the campaign trail until the session is over and get to work running the state.  

Now, surely some will compare it to McCain's ill-fated decision to 'suspend' his campaign in 2008, but the circumstances are totally different.  First, McCain wasn't running the country and secondly, when he stepped off the trail to help save the economy, he did nothing to show he was a leader.

Go be the Governor now and make yourself not just relevant, but the leader of this state during its most trying times.   America is looking for leaders, not politicians.  You have a rare chance to redefine yourself as one of the former.

2. Be yourself.

Why did people flock to Barack Obama?  He was different and authentic.  These characteristics also drove Scott Brown to victory in Massachusetts. 

Right now, Governor Crist is never going to out right Rubio, and he should stop trying.  He is who he is, and he should embrace it.  His best shot, quite honestly, is the right becoming concerned that Rubio simply is too far to the right to win.  So stop trying to be the "real conservative," it clearly isn't playing and its not going to work.   So Governor, go be yourself.  It has served you well throughout your career, so why not just embrace your brand?

The Hard Truth

As Smith and Reinhard said, the problem for Crist is he doesn't have a lot of good options.  The economy is largely out of his control, and that is impacting him more than any ideological issue. Moreover, the simple fact that Rubio leads Crist by 50 points in one poll among voters who have an opinion about both is very bad news.   But in that poll, 60% of Republicans still approve of his job as Governor, another reason for him to focus solely on governing.

Frankly, he could do these things and still lose.  But on the flip side, he is losing, so why not mix it up?

And for all you disaffected Crist GOP voters who believe that Rubio is to far to the right for your liking, I have a suggestion for you:  get to know my friend Kendrick Meek


Five Takeaways from the Week

5. Marco is in the lead.  This week, Quinnipiac released a poll that showed Rubio with his first lead over Charlie Crist in the race for the U.S. Senate seat that became open when Mel Martinez went all Sarah Palin on Florida by up and quitting one day.  Rubio has experienced a fairly clean ride up to this point, but now that he has a lead, expect the press to start doing a more thorough job looking at his record. 

4. President Obama and Crist meet again.   In February, during President Obama's first post-election trip to Florida, Governor Crist appeared on stage to endorse the Recovery Act, though in doing so, cemented the growing belief among Republicans that he wasn't a pure Republican.   There was great speculation about whether Crist would appear with the President again, finally agreeing to meet the President when AirForce One landed in Tampa.  To me, it seems as though over the last 7-10 days, Crist has gotten back to his more moderate roots, figuring to win, he needs to be who he is.  And in case you missed it, no hug this time.

3. The State of the Union.   President Obama threw down the gauntlet on Wednesday, striking a very populist and centrist tone, calling on Congress to get its act together and start working for the American people.  After working through the traditionally tough first year of any Presidency, Obama seemed to find his feet on Wednesday, returning to many of the outsider themes that propelled him to a landslide victory in 2008. 

2. Fair Districts Makes the Ballot.    A constitutional initiative that would require the legislature to follow standards in the drawing of Congressional and Legislative districts has made the ballot.  The initiative, sponsored by Fair Districts Florida, already has Tallahassee insiders and incumbents worried, since it would reduce the ability of incumbents to draw districts exactly the way they want. 

1. All Aboard.   On Thursday, President Obama and Vice President Biden traveled to Tampa to unveil a new national high speed rail initiative, one highlighted by a $1.25 billion grant to build a rail line between Tampa and Orlando.  The project, which will start in 2011, will generate thousands of new jobs and help Florida modernize its economy.  And picking Tampa for this announcement is certainly smart politics, as the winner of Hillsborough County has won the White House in every election since at least 1948. More on that here:  Welcome Back, Mr. President.


State of the Union

One narrative of the Obama political career is clear:  he knows how to take a shot and come back stronger.  Last night was no exception.

Even the most strident Obama supporter would admit that the first year has been tough, and quite frankly, some of it has been out of his control.  As much as the Republicans hate to hear it, the reality is this guy inherited a disaster.  Imagine being sixteen and your parents give you a car, except it is stuck in a ditch, missing two tires, with an engine that didn't work and out of gas.  In the GOP world, that kid would be a failure if the car wasn't driving in the Daytona 500 the next day. 

That being said, the administration has had their bumps and at times, did the one thing that would have been the cardinal crime during the campaign:  they lost control of their own message.  Its not that surprising, as most President's struggle initially to transition to the challenging of governing.  Plus this President suffered from unrealistic expectations. And to their credit, the GOP are masters at being in the minority.

But last night, the President took it all back, outlining a clear and optimistic vision for moving America forward---and moreover, challenged every patriotic American to sign up, saying that "Americans deserve a government that matches their decency."  Amen, Mr. President. 

Kennedy had his man on the moon moment, so did Reagan when he commanded the Soviets to tear down the wall.  Last night, our President challenged America not to quit, to put partisanship aside and work together to modernize our economy and workforce, and most importantly, rise to the occasion and grab firmly the mantle of being the world's greatest country---and never let go.  That is the challenge of this generation.  Our only choice is to embrace it.

Mr. President, count me in. 



Over the last few days, the punditocracy has lit up over the election of Scott Brown to the United States Senate, and as could be expected in the era of the 24 hour news cycle, pretty much everyone has overreacted.

I am not going to downplay the election, Brown's election is significant.  While Republicans winning in Massachusetts isn't as rare as some in the GOP want to suggest (anyone remember Governor Mitt Romney), it is consequential and yes, there are lessons to learn. 

That being said, everyone should underreact, take a deep breath and listen to what the voters are saying.

I know that hyperbole sells papers and gets you quoted, and the easy thing here is to say this is a massive repudiation of the Obama agenda and the start of a new GOP alignment.  But quite honestly, that is as ridiculous as those who said that Obama's election marked the end of the GOP. 

From where I sit, here are the main lessons of the Brown win.

1.  Candidates matter.  Brown was an excellent candidate who tapped into the populist (not conservative) anger in the country.  He was engaging, energetic and interesting.  He was a better candidate than Coakley in virtually every category.    Polls across the country show people are really looking at candidates more than parties (just look at polls in AL, GA Governor's races).   Parties can not just throw up warm bodies and expect to win.

2.  People are restless and want solutions.   No shocker here.  Average families are tired and worried, and they want their leaders to roll up their sleeves and get to work.   Brown didn't run as a rank partisan (nor did Governor Christie in NJ).  Republicans who read this as an endorsement of more partisanship will be sadly disappointed in November.

3.  Democrats did not react quickly enough.  I am shocked that national Democrats didn't see this coming.  I am not sure that earlier response would have made the difference, but that being said, Dems were slow to respond.  I am confident that the return of David Plouffe will ensure that better systems are in place to ensure this doesn't happen again. 

4. Basketball players from Tufts are winners.  Since they both went to Tufts and both play basketball, the Scott Brown win is definitely good news for Dan Gelber--a statement no less absurd than any of the other 1000 politicians trying to claim some shred that they are "the next Scott Brown"

So what comes next?  At the risk of being proven wrong, here goes:

1.  President Obama will come out of this stronger.  The short history of the President's political career does show one recurring theme:  this guy knows how to rally.  Every time he is being counted out---after losing his Congressional bid, early in his Senate race, in late 2007, after New Hampshire, after the primaries, after the Palin bump--you name it, he's come back stronger.   Moreover, voters like Barack Obama as a person, see him as an adult and want him to succeed. 

2. To my Republican colleagues who say he is done:  Remember Reagan.    There were a lot of similarities between Reagan and Obama's initial campaigns.  Both outsiders, both having to really prove themselves in the debates before cruising to election.  Now there Presidencies seem very similar.  Right now, the President's average approval is 49%, the same as Reagan's in early 1982 (it was an average of 42% in Gallup polls throughout 1982).  Yet he cruised in 1984, both because the economy improved and...

3.  Partisan purity loses.  Republicans, who right now are rushing to require partisan purity tests for party support, best heed history (Dems in 1984) and their own former party chair, Haley Barbour, and remember that "People are crazy if they think we win by getting more pure. We win by getting big."  Reagan found his feet, was helped by a recovering economy and ran against a perfect foil.  For a party that can't run to the right fast enough, they may well be teeing up the same ball for Obama in 2012.

4. Voter anger is aimed at both parties.  Right now the voters don't like either party, and that's bad for the party in charge. A recent poll showed 93% of Americans think there is too much partisan fighting and 61% blame both parties equally for the nation's troubles..  If I was a Florida Republican, I wouldn't be overjoyed by the Brown win, I'd be a little worried.  Look at the Governor's race.  One nominee is a relative newcomer who has a long business background and a reputation for getting things done, the other has fingerprints on almost 30 years of federal and state decision making.  Where do you think frustrated voters are more likely to land?

5.  The Democrats are better for the loss.  I know some in my party don't like to hear this, but the loss will do the body good.  I'd much rather be having the conversation on adjusting course and strategy in February of 2010 than after a bludgeoning in the late fall of 2010.  But that being said, Democrats over the next few months have to be bold (and bold isn't always ideological) in Congress, led by a President who is actively selling his agenda and bolstered by an engaged grassroots. 




Welcome back, Mr. President

In anticipation of President Obama and Vice President Biden's trip next week, now seems like as good a time as any to look at some fun political facts about Florida, Florida, Florida.

In the nation's current political alignment, especially for the GOP, Florida is a real make or break state.  There are very few scenarios where the GOP could win the White House without Florida's 27 (soon to be 28 or 29). As a result, Florida's electoral votes essentially assure a Democratic win. 

As I used to tell our young staff in 2008, it was win and you're in.

History tends to prove this point. 

Since 1928, Florida has only landed on the wrong side of two Presidential elections:  1960 and 1992 (the other big battleground, Ohio, has also been wrong twice:  1944 and 1960).  In both cases, Florida narrowly went for the GOP, while national Democrats won the ultimate prize. 

In fact, you have to go back to 1924 and the re-election of President Calvin Coolidge to find the last time that a Republican won the White House without an assist from the Sunshine State.

So if Florida is the epicenter of Presidential politics, what is the epicenter of Florida?  Simple:  Tampa, the place where the President will pay a visit on Thursday.

According to the Division of Elections, since 1948, the winner of Hillsborough County has won Florida all but one time (1960---that year, it voted for Kennedy, but Nixon won the state).

And since 1992 (the point where POTUS elections in FL became reliably competitive), the Tampa media market as a whole has selected the winner.

Year                Winner                 Tampa Market                 Statewide

92                   Bush                             +4%                            +2%

96                   Clinton                          +4%                            +6%

00                   Bush                             +2%                             Tie

04                   Bush                             +7%                             +5%

08                   Obama                          +0.5%                          +2.5% 

Certainly in 2008, the importance of the market wasn't lost on either the Obama or McCain campaigns.  We stuck our campaign state headquarters right smack in the heart of the market and made St. Petersburg the first public Florida stop of then Senator Obama's general election effort.  In fact, McCain and Obama both made four visits (and even more 'stops') to the market between August and Election Day, and sent their ticket-mate's there three times each. 

So what is it about this market?    

First, in terms of vote share, no market is bigger in Florida.  Nearly a quarter of all votes cast in a Presidential election will come from the Tampa market.  When you add the 20% that comes from the Orlando market, the importance of the I-4 corridor becomes obvious.

Secondly, I-75.  Migration to Florida, especially in the late 20th century tended to follow interstates, with the more liberal, northeastern voters migrating into southeast Florida and Midwestern voters ending up on the west coast.  As a result, while the politics of Broward look a lot like the politics of New York and Boston, the politics of Tampa feel a lot more like the more centrist and competitive politics of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin.  If you don't believe me, count the Bears and Packers fans at a Bucs game. 

Lastly, it is a little microcosm of Florida.  It has some rural ag, a growing Hispanic population (and an established Cuban population), large urban African-American centers, traditional white working class communities, and a whole lot of soccer moms.  To do well in this market, you have to have a message with wide appeal---the key ingredient to winning across the state.

So welcome back to the Tampa area, Mr. President.  Personally, I hope we will see you here lots more over the next three years.