Today's update is short.
Democrats won both early voting and vote by mail to cut the overall GOP lead to 137K, or roughly 5.9%. On this day of the campaign in 2010, the GOP margin was 15.7% or 262k votes. In other words, the Republican raw vote advantage is approximately 125k votes less than at this point in the 2010 election.
That 125k margin is approximately twice Governor Scott's margin of victory in 2010. In other words, if 2010 was held today, Alex Sink would likely have won at roughly the same margin that elected Governor Scott in 2010.
The margin is also significantly below the 11.9% advantage that the GOP had going into 2010, which equated to roughly 271,000 votes. In that election, the GOP had a total 5% advantage after all votes were cast. We today are modeling towards a much more balanced electorate.
One other interesting point:
Democrats are voting at a much higher proportion to their 2010 levels compared to Republicans.
To date: Democrats are 61 percent over their 2010 vote totals, while GOP is at roughly 23% over their comparable vote totals in 2010. Also, nearly twice as many NPA voters have cast ballots compared to this point in 2010, and with virtually every public poll showing Gov Crist doing well with NPA voters, this trend is good news.
Until tomorrow. Go Noles!!
As always, if you have questions, please let me know.