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Friday
Dec172010

Redistricting- What does it mean, House Early Edition

Now that the 2010 election is beyond us, the focus turns to redistricting.  

On Tuesday, the United States Census will release its statewide data, and we will have a first look at how the boundaries are really going to shift and how many seats Florida will add.  I am pretty confident we will get two new seats.  A few months back, I took a look at where those might land.

It will take sometime to get all of the data to look how growth trends will impact down the ballot, but in the meantime, the annual census population estimates provide some indication of internal growth trends and how it might impact district boundaries.

This post will look primarily at State House seats, though if you want to predict how State Senate seat apportionment will change, remember, when they are all re-drawn, the State Senate seats will be exactly 3x as large as State House seats.

Remarkably, most of the state will see little change.  For example, growth in the Palm Beach County media market has been almost spot on with statewide growth, meaning that based on the 2009 population estimates, the market would gain a whole 0.04 state house seats. 

The most significant changes will occur in Southeast Florida and in Central Florida, with the latter gaining seats from the former.   Given that the Miami market has grown slower than the rest of the state, with the Orlando media market growing much faster, the Orlando area stands to gain about 1.5 seats, while Miami/Fort Lauderdale will lose close to two.

As a whole the winners/losers look like this:

Winners (by media market): 

Orlando:  plus 1.41 seats
Fort Myers:  plus 0.58 seats
 

Losers (by market):

Miami:  minus 1.61 seats
Pensacola:  minus 0.27 seats
 

The state’s other six media markets will see only fractional changes.  However, that doesn’t mean significant changes won’t occur within those areas.

For example, within the Jacksonville media market, the growth has been mostly in the south, meaning Duval County as a whole will lose a fraction of a seat, which will end up helping my old hometown of St. Johns County, which will gain a larger share of the region’s districts.  

Or in Palm Beach media market, which has seen its population shift northward, both into northern Palm Beach County, but specifically into St. Lucie County.  

But the most significant intra-market population shifts will occur in the Tampa media market, which  will be home to roughly 28 seats after redistricting, virtually the same as prior to redistricting.  However, as one of only two counties that has lost residents since the last redistricting, Pinellas County stands to lose an entire state house seat, earning the distinction as the county that will see the most significant change to their representation.  I am guessing to make up the difference in Pinellas, what is now the John Legg seat in Pasco will bascially go away, and the current HD 45 will become a largely West Pasco based seat.

On the flip side, Pasco, Hernando and Polk County have all seen population growth, meaning the Pinellas seat will likely be replaced by a new district that is further north and east (paging former Representative Littlefield), as House Redistricting Chairman Will Weatherford sees his district significantly shrink due to the remarkable population growth that his area has experienced.

And speaking of Will, he is going to be faced with another interesting dilemma.  More than likely, one of the hopefully two new Congressional seats will end up with a pretty significant population base in east Pasco and north Hillsborough County, a district that could look pretty appealing to the Speaker-Designate.   Ahh, to have choices! 

As this moves forward, I'll try to use this blog to analyze what is out there and what it could mean.  In the meantime, always feel free to share your thoughts. 

Tuesday
Aug312010

More on Crist's Steep Climb

I've gotten a fair number of emails and calls today on my blog post saying that Crist won't win, mostly from Democrats who hope that I am wrong because they see Crist as the best chance to beat Rubio.  Several of them wanted to know how I saw Meek winning, which if you read the post, isn't the point.  Even the Weekly Standard had a take.  Trust me, I didn't see that one coming.
 
Nonetheless, the chatter made it clear the Crist theory needed more explanation.  So let me delve a little more into the numbers.
 
Going back to the basic math to win for Crist:  win roughly 1/3 of the partisan vote and 50% of the NPA.   First, there is one big assumption there, that Crist will get 50% of the NPA vote.  Some suggest more, many more suggested he will get less.  For this exercise,we have to start somewhere. Quite frankly, if he doesn't get 50%, the whole conversation is purely academic.  

Nonetheless, under that assumption and the model that  a few more Dems vote on election day, which given the Dems six point registration advantage, is likely, Crist wins by a few points.  But here is problem one:  Who really thinks Crist will get 33% of the GOP vote?  Not this observer.
 
Looking more into the math, and again, assuming that Crist gets 50% of the NPA vote, which in a three way race is far from a sure thing, here is what he would need to get from R's and D's to get a plurality of vote.  This is all built off a 42-41-17 R-D-NPA election day model:
 
If 33% of GOP vote for him, he needs about the same in Dem vote.
If 25% of GOP votes for him, he needs 41% of the Dem vote (by less than a point).
If 20% of GOP votes for him, he needs 50% of the Dem vote to win (by four-tenths).
If 18% of GOP votes for him, he needs 53% of the Dem vote to win (by two-tenths).
If 15% of GOP votes for him, he needs 59% of Dem vote to win (by three-tenths).
 
All of this assumes that in this kind of race, Meek would get 5% of Republicans.  In fairness, I think there is a better chance that Rubio gets 5% of Dems than Meek gets 5% of Republicans.  It also assumes that NPA breaks evenly between Meek and Rubio. 
 
The problem for Crist is every Republican who goes from Crist to Rubio costs Crist more than he gains the other way around.  Why?  Because when Rubio takes a vote away GOP vote, it goes right to Rubio, while when Crist takes a vote from the Dems, it comes from Meek's total, not from Rubio's.  Make sense? 
                                         
Could Democrats leave en masse for Crist?  Sure, they could.  Will they?  Well, lets play that one out.
 
First of all, if we assume (and I think this is a fair assumption since Davis got 81%), that Meek will get at least 75% of the African American/Caribbean vote, which makes up roughly 13-14% of the likely total statewide turnout, that alone gets him to roughly 10 points statewide, virtually all out of the Democratic column.   So if we work off the scenario that Crist gets 25% of the GOP vote, which is hardly a sure thing, Crist needs to get 41% of the Democratic vote. Should Meek get 75% of the African American/Caribbean vote, Crist would need 55-56% of the remaining white and Hispanic Democratic vote.  If he gets Davis or better numbers, the Crist number gets even higher.  
 
How does Crist do that?  Theory One is he announces he is caucusing with the Democrats.  That may win him some votes, but some Democrats will see it as pandering and stick with Meek.  Who else will see it as pandering:  Republicans and Independents.  If Crist says he is with the Democrats, will he still get 25% of Republicans or half of the Independents, especially in this cycle when voters are rejecting typical politics?  Highly unlikely. 
 
In addition, one other factor will come into play:  the hardening of partisanship.  Elections always narrow because partisans come home closer to election day, which is why in Florida, winning the NPA vote in a two way statewide or close district-level race is vital for winning.  In a two-way race, that pushes both candidates to the middle, but in a three-way race, it hurts the one in the middle.  If Crist doesn't get close to a third of the total partisan vote, he will lose, plain and simple, and there is definitely a scenario where that happens.  For example, if he only gets 25% of the two party vote, he would need to get 70% of the NPA vote to get to 34%, which probably won't be enough to win.  Even at 70% of the NPA vote, he'd still needs 29-30% of the two party vote to get to a reasonable win number.

I am the first to admit that Meek's road isn't an easy one, despite my hope and support for him.  But as the numbers support, Crist just isn't going to get there without some dramatic change of events, which leads me back to the point in my original post:  that Kendrick Meek is the best chance for Democrats who want to beat Rubio, because the votes aren't there for Crist.
 
You know who else I think knows this?  Governor Crist, which explains why he is all over the place on issues.  Confident candidates stay on message, while less confident candidates scramble around to find solid ground.  Is there any question that Crist is scrambling.
 
Now you ask, can Kendrick Meek win?
 
Go back to the original Election Day turnout scenario, with Crist winning NPA voters with 50% and Meek/Rubio split the rest.  They each get 80% of their party vote, because Democrats come home understanding that Meek is the best chance.  What happens then?  Meek wins 40-39-21.  Sure he can win.  Will he win?  That is another question.

Yes, I personally want to see Meek win.  I've supported him for some time and was pretty vocal for him during the primary.  But trust me, that is a separate discussion from "Can Charlie Win?," which is the question everyone is asking.  All bias aside, I don't see it happening.  Clearly, a lot has to happen between now and then for Meek, namely, Meek needs to raise a ton of money (though remember, he did throttle a billionaire primary opponent who outspent him 7:1). 

People keep asking "But isn't a better strategy for Democrats to vote for Crist?"   First, I don't think voters are that 'processey.' Secondly, the 'rally around Crist' theory also assumes that the several million or so Democrats likely to vote in November are monolithic.  Trust me, they aren't.

If Jeff Greene had won the primary, I'd be writing a very different post. But Greene didn't, by a long shot.

Simply, I don't see as many as half of Democrats statewide abandoning Kendrick Meek and voting for Charlie Crist, especially with both President Clinton and Obama supporting him, institutional Democrats rallying around him and the vast majority of Democratic electeds remaining firmly in his camp, which is why the time to come to embrace reality and for Democrats to help Meek.  Otherwise, Marco will remain firmly in the driver's seat, which is where he sits today.

Tuesday
Aug312010

Sorry Charlie

Charlie Crist will not be Florida's next United States Senator. 
 
In a year where most predictions are downright silly, I am very confident in that one.  When Kendrick Meek won last Tuesday, with his victory went Charlie Crist's chances.  Democrats who want to beat Marco Rubio should jump on the Meek train. 

To understand why, let's revisit the math.
 
For Crist to win the United States Senate race, he would need a formula that looked something like this:
 
33% of the Democratic vote
33% of the Republican vote
50% of the NPA vote. 
 
This formula would get him a vote total of 36-37%, a likely win scenario in a highly competitive three way race, where all three candidates are scoring in the thirties. 
 
Here is one problem:  Rubio is limiting him to 20% of the Republican vote.  If Rubio keeps him at 20% of the GOP vote, Crist needs to get 45% of the Democratic vote in order to win, and according to the latest PPP poll, Crist is only at 38% today with Democrats. 
 
But the bigger problem is he is falling into the same place as many other long time office holders:  his personal approval numbers are plummeting. He no longer has that deep well of cross party lines personal support built up that allows him to transcend normal political divides.  Instead, he now has to block and tackle like everyone else.  In this political environment, absent some significant and unfortunate event that would thrust him back into the spotlight, the odds of him finding 15-20 points of political approval in the next nine weeks are slim, at best.
 
Therefore, for Crist, who after 20 years of being a GOP insider, his only path to victory is to find a way to be Democratic enough to win enough Democrats, Republican enough to win enough Republicans, and to do that in a way where he doesn't anger Independents.  Not exactly the easiest thing to do, when Democrats now have a plausible alternative in Meek and Republicans in Rubio.  If Greene had won, it might be a different story
 
Democrats who support Crist keep saying to me, "well, we just need Dems to vote for Crist," but that just isn't going to happen in the margins he needs to win. 
 
Today, Rubio has the clearest path to victory, but once Democrats figure out that Meek is their only option, his path will get much more clear as well.   For Crist, I wouldn't rush to book that early January plane ticket from Tallahassee to DC-- a trip that starting in October 2010, the rest of us will be able make without stopping in Atlanta or Charlotte!

Saturday
Aug142010

Legislative Races to Watch

I have spent most of my political career toiling in and around the legislative arena, and truth be told, I think legislative races in Florida are a ton of fun, particularly state house races.  State House districts in Florida are big enough that they require virtually every element of a larger race: television, mail, field, earned media, etc., but small enough that local dynamics and old fashioned shoe leather can make a difference.

Much has changed in Florida since the last redistricting, and the upshot of these trends is an increase in the number of competitive races in Florida.  So as we move into towards the 2010 elections, here are ten you should watch.  Surely some of these will fall off the intrigue board, but from where I sit today, these are the ones that might have the best races---and the best story lines.

 

HD 9---The Oil Primary:           Democratic Primary:  Vasilinda vs Minor 

This is the oil primary.  Michelle Vasilinda was the only Democratic member of the legislature to support near shore drilling and Minor has been taking her to task for it since he got in this race nearly a year ago—and well before the oil spill.   Vasilinda will have more name ID and more money.   But Tallahassee is liberal place and Minor has been running a fairly one issue campaign. 

HD 11---Blue Dog Rising:                           Boyd v. Porter

Assuming Liz Porter can win her primary, look for a re-match of last year’s close race with Debbie Boyd.  Two factors benefiting Boyd this time:  the district performs better for Democrats in non-Presidential years and history---in the age of term limits, only one incumbent has lost a re-election after their first try, and that was Sheri McInvale who switched parties in a heavily Democratic seat.

HD 26---Clash of the Community Titans:          Tim Huth vs. Fred Costello (probably)

Assuming Costello wins his primary, this should be a fun race between two very well established figures in north Volusia County, both who I know from my days working with Doug Wiles.  Costello, currently the Mayor of Ormond Beach and Huth, a key figure with the Volusia County School District, are two of the more civically active people in the county.  Working a little uphill for Tim, this district is one of the few in FL that has shown a slight GOP trend over the last 4-6 years.

HD 29---Free for All Primary:                       Four way open primary

In this era where it is super easy to close a primary with a write-in candidate, the race to replace Ralph Poppell will be unique that is a four-way Republican primary that all voters can vote in.  Often times, primaries are races to the edges, but with the door open to voters from the other side---and the more liberal wing of the Democratic party at that, it will be fascinating to watch which candidates, if any, risk turning off their own base to go grab a sizable chunk of the Democratic and NPA vote.

HD 57---The Battleground:                 Stacey Frank vs. Dana Young (probably)

There are few places that define the swing voter characteristics of the Tampa media market quite like South Tampa.  The district has a very slight GOP tilt, but is always one of the most competitive in statewide elections.  Faye Culp is a South Tampa institution, who is retiring after serving here for 12 out of the last 16 years.   Both parties are fielding strong candidates and this one is setting up to be the battleground race of the year.

HD 70---The Oil General:              Nancy Feehan v. Doug Holder

Doug Holder, on paper, should have no problem holding this fairly predictably---though occasionally finicky seat in Sarasota County.   The one potential hiccup:  his vote in favor of oil drilling in 2006.  Like most of the gulf coast, Sarasota County is historically a place where oil drilling has been seen as contrary to their economic engine:  the beaches.  In early 2009, in the post ‘drill baby drill’ era, Holder voted to authorize near shore drilling and at the time, took some non-lethal lumps.  Since then, the Gulf filled up with oil.  Will he lose?  Probably not.  But that doesn't mean it won't be interesting.

HD 81--- The Validator:            Adam Fetterman vs. Gayle Harrell

One of the most obvious trends over the last decade has been that of St. Lucie County, which has slowly inched its way towards becoming a base GOP county.  One of the final steps in that process was the election of Adam Fetterman in 2008.  Four of the last five major statewide Democrats have carried it, and while the GOP still holds a healthy voter reg advantage in HD 81 (which is also 1/3rdin Martin County), few places in Florida have trended faster towards the Dems than this one.    Fetterman now faces a showdown with former Rep. Gayle Harrell, who is mounting a comeback after losing a GOP primary for Congress in 2008.  In this tougher political environment, a Fetterman win will validate the growing trend for Democrats north of Palm Beach County.

HD 87-  The Southern Front.      Hava Holzhauer vs. Bill Hager

Some races are interesting because of their plot line, and some, like this one, because they could just be straight up battles.  On paper, the seat held by Majority Leader Adam Hasner should be the best chance the Democrats have in the state to pick up a seat.  In statewide races, it has consistently ticked a few points more Democratic in election after election.  After sputtering through recruitment, with one candidate switching to a safer race and another dropping out after getting in, the Dems have settled on Holzhauer, who by all accounts is an impressive candidate.  The Republicans also have a good one in Hager. 

HD 107- The Comeback.         Luis Garcia v.  Gus Barriero

When he left the legislature, few people were more popular in HD 107 than Gus Barriero, but that was before he went to work at DJJ and was later fired for looking at porn on his state computer.  This seat has lunged towards the Democratic column in the last three cycles and should remain there, though if the voters of HD 107 are in a forgiving mood, this one could end up being at least memorable.

HD 119-       Katie Edwards v. Frank Artiles

This may be the most interesting race in the state.   For some time, I’ve felt this would be the second GOP Dade seat to switch (I took a lot of flack in 2006 for thinking we could win HD 107, which is now nearly a safe Dem seat) and with Representative Zapata term limited out, this is the best chance.  On the Democratic side, one of the most impressive candidates running in Florida, bar none, is Katie Edwards, who has raised in South Florida and with the support of many community leaders.  However, there is a catch:  she’s a white woman who works in the agricultural industry.  On the GOP side, an equally strong candidate in Frank Artiles, who is a lawyer and a veteran.  From where I sit, the district wants to vote for a Democrat, but will ethnic politics trump?  It did in 2002 when the Puerto Rican Quinones defeated Jose Fernandez in a heavily Democratic, but equally heavy Puerto Rican seat.  But this is neither Puerto Rican or Orlando---nor is it 2002.

A couple others to watch:

HD 3 and 7-   Two more oil general elections, both which in this cycle should be pretty safe for the GOP incumbents, except that both voted for near shore drilling---and both represent communities struggling to recover.   Will this give the Dems a chance to be competitive?  We'll have to see.

HD 51/52.   Janet Long and Bill Heller picked up these south Pinellas seats for the Democrats in 2006, when both were among the most competitive in the state, and both won re-election pretty easily in 2008.  Now both face stronger challenges in a tougher year.  Long's seat is more marginal, but her opponent appears to be weaker.  Heller's seat is trending more Democratic, but his opponent is a wealthy self-funder.   Like the two above, the Dems should win them both, but given the dynamics of this cycle, are races to watch.

HD 83-  Marciano v. Rooney.   Can Marciano overcome Rooney’s name ID and money?  Does Rooney get painted with the frustration Americans have with Congress?  On paper, its competitive and should  be interesting.

HD 112/HD 117-  Two other GOP Cuban-dominant seats that were considered the reddest of red in 2002 which today, are much more in play.  GOP probably wins them both---this time.  But watch, one day we are going to wake up and the Dems will hold all but 2-3 of the Dade County seats.  Barack Obama won the county by a larger vote margin than any Democrat in a long time---if not history, and while I’d like to peg most of that on our great operation there, truth be told, a lot of it was the outcome of a county that is getting younger and much less Cuban.  

HD 35/HD 120- Do the incoming leaders break the 7-8 cycle “Leader Truce?”  Both of them represent districts that are considered to be competitive on paper.  

Monday
Jul052010

Learning from the Research 2000 Polling Mess

This might sound strange or even ironic coming from an operative, but politics and especially coverage of politics has become too focused on the nuts and bolts, or process of elections.  Virtually every story these days has to do with who works for who, what so and so raised and my favorite, reporting on public polls.

Over the past few years, the public sphere has been literally inundated with polling and many in the media are literally addicted to them, publishing every ounce of data reported, with little or no regard to the quality of the survey instrument, the record of the pollster or any methodology considerations.  When I asked a member of the press about this, their response was "we just put it out there and others can decide if it is important or meaningful."  Problem is, when the media publishes polling in print or on-line, it immediately becomes meaningful.

It isn't that polling is a bad thing, in fact, quite the contrary.  Polling is an important tool for understanding the nature of political races and the mood of the electorate.  Except, most of the polls done today are not done with that layer of context, rather they focus on one thing:  the horse race.  Often this data comes from groups and companies that have little to no public track record, yet the data is treated as fact.

This whole issue recently came to light after the founder of a leading liberal blog, Daily Kos, announced his intention to sue his pollster, Research 2000 for fraud after a number of investigations called into question the reliability of their data.  It was the right thing to do.  Many folks, including myself, would shake their heads at some of the data coming out of that shop.  But here is the problem, for over a year, the press has been reporting on these polls, without a shred of concern as to their accuracy.  Even here in Florida, we have felt the impact.

Flashback to November 2009, Marco Rubio's campaign is all of the talk, but to date, the race still appeared to be Crist's for the taking.  All but one poll to date had Crist over 50% (and that one had him at 49), and no poll had the race inside 15 points---and most had the margin in the mid 20's.

But the narrative began to change in a meaningful way when the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll was released in late November.  First, they were the first that had the race at 10 points or less, showing Crist at 47 and Rubio at 37.  It was also the first time Crist approval was under 50 among Republicans.  However, that wasn't the only major thing to pop out of that poll:  at the same time, they released data showing Crist winning a three way Senate race as an independent, fueling not only the "would he do it" talk, but also the "can he win" debate.  Except, now we have no idea if any of that data was collected in a scientific way.

Research 2000 isn't the only firm to have problems, it is just the most recent. 

One of the things I do in my spare time, and one I probably shouldn't repeat, is trying to replicate public data.  More often than one would expect, I find that the data released by company or organization X was based on a model or methodology that bares little resemblance to reality, such as over or under sampling primary voters or using vote models that don't take into account Florida's changing diversity. 

In my perfect world, a public poll wouldn't land on a blog or in the paper unless the full methodology was explained.  Good scientists (which is what pollsters should be) should have no problem with letting others mess around with their data and test its veracity.  It shouldn't take much, just tell us what your sample looked like, how you modeled your voters and release your crosstabs. 

But assuming that isn't going to happen, take two steps when you find a poll posted on a blog:  Go to Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com and check out his rankings of pollster accuracy, then go to the website of the organization that did the polling and check out the data for yourself.  

Many factors determine how elections turn out, but too often media coverage is focused on just one or two of them.  Therefore, take all of this data in context.  If polling taken a year before an election was rock solid gold, we'd be talking about President Guiliani or Clinton.  Clearly, history decided to go a different direction.  

 

Monday
Jun212010

Why it is downright silly to count out Kendrick Meek

Conventional wisdom is a lot of things, but one thing is for certain, it is often wrong in the long run.

Here are my two favorites from the last year:

  • Charlie Crist is unstoppable, regardless of what he runs for (this one dates back to 2006).
  • Start measuring the drapes Bill McCollum. You are the next Florida Governor.

It seems the latest CW de’jour is Kendrick Meek is done, toast, finished, and like most CW, this one is grounded in virtually no fact.

Let’s review.

In most polling leading up to the Charlie Crist switch-a-roo, in head to head polls, Meek would land in the high 20’s to low 30’s, essentially the baseline Democratic vote, roughly the same you would find if you  put me in those head to heads.  Why?  On a statewide basis, he is a relative unknown.  This isn’t his fault, Florida is an exceedingly hard place to earn name ID and when you do have it, it can be fleeting.

Alas, Crist makes the switch and all of the sudden, Meek finds himself in the mid-teens.     The last poll, done by the Florida Chamber of Commerce, has the race at 41 Crist, 30 Rubio, 14 Meek.

But from where I sit, nothing much has changed.

Crist has always had high favorable that crossed partisan lines.  He also has universal name ID, a rarity in Florida that is likely only shared by Jeb Bush (not even Bill Nelson or five time statewide winner Bob Graham can claim it).   And unlike Crist, neither of his general election opponents, Marco Rubio or Kendrick Meek have anything near it.  Hence the polling.  It is all about him having real name ID, while his opponents do not.

However, that will change.  While the press has been writing him off, Meek has slowly been building up a healthy war chest, one that will allow him to run a healthy paid media effort during his primary.  And as Meek’s name ID increases and voters become more comfortable with his story, so will his polling numbers.

In some ways, Meek’s bigger challenge isn’t the general, its getting out of his primary.  While part of me thinks it requires a certain suspension of reality to see Democratic voters select Jeff Greene, you can never count out a billionaire who clearly isn’t afraid to spend it.  But unlike the GOP primary, where voters seem to be actively looking for an alternative to Bill McCollum, Democratic voters don’t know Meek—yet.  But they will soon.

Assuming Meek can win his primary, which I think he will, the real fun begins.  If Meek is able to spend 4-6 million in his primary, he will likely emerge with 50-60% statewide name ID, and more importantly,  higher numbers among Democrats.  That higher name ID will almost certainly lead to much more interesting three-way match-ups between Meek, Crist and Rubio, which will lead to more fundraising and more TV.

I do believe that right now, there are Democrats who are rallying around Crist because they know him, but as I’ve written about here before, Crist’s support has never been more than an inch thick.  And as Meek grows in stature, that support will peel away. 

It is a long ways between today and August 24th and even further until November, which is why no one should write anyone off yet, and definitely not Kendrick Meek.

Saturday
May222010

Looks like Bob Graham was right, again.

I'll admit it, I am an unabashed fan of Bob Graham.  In fact, one of the great honors and joys of my 2008 Obama experience was getting to spend time with him.  There are few who have ever understood this state like him, and few that ever will.  

That being said, many people shook their heads when a decade or so ago, Bob Graham predicted that the state's long term demographic shifts would lead to a much better state for Democrats.  The doubters weren't without good cause, a decade ago, Jeb Bush had just easily won the Governor's mansion, and Republicans were sweeping pretty much everything, at all levels of the ballot. 

Fast forward.  Obama wins Florida, on the back of a grassroots effort that is without comparison.  Democratic voter registration advantage surges from 250,000 to over 700,000, in just a year or so.  Some GOPers claimed it was a fluke, or at worst (for them), a one time boost and that Florida was still a reliably "red" state. 

Fast forward again.  Obama's popularity slides and all is lost for the Democrats, or at least that is the message coming out of the politarazzi.  But does the data back it up? 

Not exactly.

Since the close of the registration books in October 2008, 38% of all new registrants in Florida signed up as Democratic, compared to just 25% with the GOP, an advantage of some 50K voters, continuing a four year trend of growth for Florida Democrats.  In fact, going back to the close of books in 2006, 42% of all new registrants signed up with the Democrats, compared to only 25% for the Republicans. 

Now, I'd love to claim that guys like me have a lot to do with it, but the truth is simple demographics are working in the favor of Democrats, just as Bob Graham predicted. 

If you look at voters registered before 2006, not only is the Dem to GOP margin closer (+3 Dem), but the state had a different look.  Almost 72% of registered voters were white, with African American/Caribbean voters making up 12% and Hispanics making up another 10%.   But since 2006, the numbers tell a different story.  Of voters registered since 2006, 17% are African American/Caribbean and 18% are Hispanic (the numbers are pretty consistent from 2006-2008 and from 2008-2010).

Within these populations, the Democratic advantage is stunning.  Among the 340,000 or so Hispanics who have registered since 2006, the Democratic advantage over the GOP is 44-19.  Given what just happened in Arizona, there is no reason to believe this trend will change anytime soon.

Among new African American/Caribbean voters, the advantage is 81-3,  Even among white voters, where the GOP held a 10 point advantage pre-2006, among new voters, the advantage is +6 (both pre-2008 and post-2008).

Dig a little deeper and you see that seven counties in Florida make up more than 51% of all new voters since the close of registration in 2006, and in those four counties, more than 4 out 10 new voters were either African American/Caribbean or Hispanic.   I'll break this down a little further in a future blog post.

Add these trends to the fact that 2010 marks the first time in 140 years that every statewide office is on the ballot without an incumbent running for re-election---plus Cristpalooza, and this one is lining up to be a wild one, Florida style.

And once again, it looks like Bob Graham was right. 

Thursday
May202010

The next generation of communication

Given all the fun in Florida politics over the last month, I've been a little remiss on commenting on a recent survey about teenagers and how they communicate that came from the Pew Trusts.

Several have already written about the findings.  For example, the survey found that the average teen texts about 100 times a day (wonder how that compares to the average legislator), and that some 34% of teenage drivers admit to texting while driving.  Given the research on self-disclosure of bad personal behavior, and our collective experience, we all know the last figure to be significantly higher.

However, one piece has been underreported, at least in my opinion.  In this survey, only 34% of 17 year olds and 33% of all teens say they talk to their friends face to face on a given day, compared to 54% of all teens (and 77% of 17 year olds) who say they text with their friends every day.  Certainly anyone who has teenagers or who interacts with them frequently (I am the proud uncle of several) will attest to the accuracy of this.

So what does this mean in the realm of politics?  More than you can imagine.

Here is some more background.

A couple years back, when I was plodding through grad school at FSU (on the working student five year plan!), I worked on a paper with a few classmates where we attempted to measure whether you could predict someone's likelihood to become active civically based largely on the number of friends they had on Facebook.  Knowing that traditionally, the width and influence of one's network of friends (loosely known as social capital) can of whether someone would vote or even run for office themselves, we wanted to see if the same could be a predictor using social networking.  The answer we found:  maybe.  That's a whole other blog post.

But in that research, we also discovered a fascinating paper written in 2007 by an Ohio State professor who wanted to find out among college students if face to face debate was better than virtual (online debate).  The results, at least to me, were stunning, that yes, among this universe of voters, the online debate was just as valuable and that the students were "more candid (used) more direct opinions and engaged in more heated debates," than those who did the same thing around the table.  Another study found that "the ease of electronic communication may be making teens less interested in face-to-face communication with their friends" (Subrahmanyam and Greenfield, 2008). 

So to sum this up, teenagers and college students not only utilize electronic communication more than face to face communication, they value it just as much.   And that changes everything.

Sure, as these kids grow up, they will begin to meld into society, but we are largely products of what we learn as youngsters, meaning that there is no reason to think that even as 30 and 40 year olds, the subjects in this study won't continue to value electronic communication as much as face to face. 

Take all these findings and it is fair to assume that as today's generation grows into tomorrows, we will be looking at a society that debates less at the water color and more on self-selected facebook groups, and one where fewer people lobby their neighbors by banging on doors and more lobby their friends on twitter or over text message.  And it won't just impact politicians, this new era will impact all of the ways that we communicate with each other as we move into a world where we are all connected all the time.

So next time you see a kid sitting at the dinner table at Applebees texting during dinner, just wait, one day that young person might be your co-worker debating you on the merits of a company policy over gchat, facebook, or that same cell phone. 

Tuesday
May182010

How to read the Sink/Scott Rasmussen poll.

Today, Rasmussen released a poll which showed RickScott and Alex Sink in a statistical dead heat.  As usual, the punditocracy overreacted.   Here's why.

First, Rick Scott has been on statewide TV and radio for a month, to the tune of $4-6 million.  At this level, voters in every market in the state--including the very expensive Miami market, have seen his ads 7-10 times a week.  

On the flip side, Alex Sink has not been on TV, which for this time of year, is very normal for gubernatorial voters.  Alex Sink will undoubtedly run a robust and easily largest paid media program of any Florida Democratic gubernatorial candidate in history. So he will not communicate in a vacuum forever.  And almost no voter has learned that as a hospital CEO, his company got slapped with a $1.7 billion fine for committing the largest Medicare fraud in American history.

But back to the poll:  Scott's one point lead is fueled by an important stat:  he is getting 76% of Republicans, compared to Sink getting 68% of Democrats.  In the latter camp, they just don't know her yet.  But considering Jim Davis got 85% of Democrats, one can fairly assume that Sink will do at least as well.

Sink, despite her relative lack of name ID, is still beating Scott among NPA (voters not registered with one of the two major political parties) voters by 3 points.  Again, noting that Davis beat Crist, according to the exit polls, by a point, it is a reasonable notion that Alex Sink will do at least as well.

So, if you fast forward and based on this poll, make the following assumptions:

1.  Alex Sink gets not a single vote out of the remaining 13% of GOP undecideds.  In other words, on election day, she gets 11% of GOP voters, which is one less than Obama in 2008.

2. She gets 86% of Democrats to vote for her. One point more than Davis earned, and one less than Obama

3.  She only gets 1 in 5 of the remaining undecided NPA voters in the Rasmussen survey.

If you do this, Sink beats Scott by 2 points on election day, 51-49, a virtual landslide in Florida. And that is before a single point of television communication by Sink. 

Quite frankly, that is a pretty strong place to start. 

Thursday
May132010

The most important number of the week:  38

Most of the reporting about the recent Mason-Dixon poll that showed Rick Scott within 14 points of Bill McCollum focused on exactly that, the 14 point gap.  But from where I sit, it isn't the 14 point cap that should scare the daylights out of Camp McCollum, it is the other number:  38.

Here's why.

McCollum has run for statewide office now four times.  He has very high name ID and and even higher  name ID among core Republicans. 

On the other hand, less than a month ago, probably not more than four people could pick Rick Scott out of a line-up. 

Even today, according to the same poll, McCollum holds a substantive name ID advantage among Republicans of 57-29 and a favorable advantage of 46-28.  Take these factors into play and he should be above or at least close to 50 in a head to head with Scott.

Yet he is at 38.

And 40 percent aren't sure how they will vote.

Even in the early days, when Rubio had low name ID, Crist was frequently above 50 percent.  It took nearly a year for him to catch up and tie Crist.  Scott's on pace to do it in 6-8 weeks.  In other words, it almost seems like Republicans have been wanting an alternative to the Attorney General and as soon as it popped up, they jumped to it.

Further, he has an even bigger problem.  Rick Scott has already spent more than McCollum has raised and is on place to outspend him 4, maybe even 5 to one. 

Now, Scott isn't without his own problems, namely that he once ran a company that got whacked by the federal government for a $1.7 Billion (yes that is Billion with a B) fine for defrauding the government.   And his decision to stand up and defend the oil industry with the gusher in the gulf may be courageous, but hardly smart politics. 

But the problem for McCollum is it appears his voters are ready and willing to look for an alternative and in the end they may not care, just as they brushed aside Rubio's credit card and other woes.  And if McCollum doesn't start taking this guy seriously and at least try to get some negative earned press, a few more weeks and a few more 4-5 million on TV and he could find himself in a dead heat, or even behind the man from Naples, at which point, it will be Katy Bar the Door time for the presumptive nominee.

Which is why this week's most important number is in fact not 14, but 38.